The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index increased by 0.5 points in August, reaching 100.8, which is nearly three points above its long-term average. According to the National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB), four of the index’s ten components rose, four declined, and two remained unchanged. The most significant contributor to the increase was a rise in expectations for higher real sales.
The Uncertainty Index dropped by four points to 93 but stayed above its historical average, reflecting reduced uncertainty about financing and planned capital expenditures.
“Optimism increased slightly in August with more owners reporting stronger sales expectations and improved earnings,” said NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. “While owners have cited an improvement in overall business health, labor quality remained the top issue on Main Street.”
“These numbers reflect what our members are feeling here in Oklahoma,” NFIB State Director Jerrod Shouse said. “Stronger sales and earnings are boosting Main Street’s confidence, despite some ongoing labor challenges.”
Survey results showed that 14% of small business owners rated their business health as excellent (up one point), while 54% rated it as good (up two points). Twenty-seven percent reported fair health (down four points), and 4% reported poor health (unchanged).
Labor quality continued to be the leading concern for small businesses, with 21% identifying it as their primary problem. In August, 32% of owners had job openings they could not fill—down one point from July—marking the lowest level since July 2020.
Expectations for higher real sales volumes rose six points from July to a net 12%. A net zero percent viewed current inventory stocks as too low, up three points from July.
The share of owners raising average selling prices fell three points to a net 21%, representing this year’s lowest reading. Reports of positive profit trends improved by three points but remained negative at a net -19%, though this was the best result since March 2023.
Interest rates on short maturity loans averaged 8.1%, down from July and at their lowest since May 2023. Regular borrowing among business owners fell to 23%, last seen below this level in November 2021.
In hiring trends, a seasonally adjusted net 15% plan to create new jobs over the next three months—a third consecutive monthly increase but still historically low. Of those hiring or trying to hire in August, most reported few or no qualified applicants.
Industries such as construction continue facing difficulties filling open positions; nearly half of construction firms had unfilled job openings in August—a decline from previous months and last year.
A majority of small businesses made capital outlays recently: over half spent on equipment or vehicles, while fewer invested in facilities or land expansion.
Supply chain disruptions affected just over half of respondents but were less severe than earlier months; only three percent cited significant impact.
Looking ahead, more than a quarter plan price increases within three months—though both actual price hikes and inflation concerns remain steady compared with recent reports.
Profitability remains challenged for many: weaker sales were most often blamed for lower profits; higher profits were mainly attributed to increased sales volumes or seasonal changes.
Taxes remain the second-most-cited problem after labor issues among small business owners surveyed by NFIB. Government regulations also ranked high among concerns this month.
NFIB has conducted these economic trend surveys quarterly since late-1973 and monthly since 1986 using randomly selected members’ responses; results are published each month following data collection.
