Sooner State News

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index experienced a decline of 2.1 points in February, reaching 100.7. This marks the fourth consecutive month that the index remains above the 51-year average of 98, although it is still 4.4 points below its recent peak of 105.1 recorded in December. The Uncertainty Index increased by four points to reach 104, marking the second-highest reading on record.

"Uncertainty is high and rising on Main Street and for many reasons," stated NFIB Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg. He noted that small business owners expecting better business conditions in the next six months have decreased, and fewer view the current period as a good time to expand their businesses. However, this sentiment remains higher than it was last fall. Inflation continues to be a significant issue, ranking second only to labor quality.

NFIB Oklahoma State Director Jerrod Shouse commented on the situation: "With labor costs rising, Oklahoma’s small business owners are feeling the squeeze from both workforce challenges and inflationary pressures." He urged the Legislature to address health insurance costs and implement reforms beneficial to Oklahoma's small business community and economy.

Key findings from the report include a ten-point drop in the net percentage of owners expecting economic improvement from January, now at a net 37% (seasonally adjusted). Additionally, only twelve percent of owners consider it a good time to expand their business—a five-point decrease from January—marking the largest monthly drop since April 2020.

Inflation concerns were reported by sixteen percent of owners as their most pressing problem, down two points from January but still trailing behind labor quality issues. The percentage of owners raising average selling prices rose by ten points from January to a net 32% (seasonally adjusted), representing one of the highest increases recorded since April 2021.

A seasonally adjusted net twenty-nine percent plan price hikes over the next three months, up three points from January—the highest level in eleven months. Labor costs remain a significant concern for business owners, with reports indicating they are now just one point below their peak reading in December 2021.

The survey also introduced a new question assessing overall business health: eleven percent rated their business health as excellent, fifty-five percent as good, twenty-seven percent as okay, and six percent as bad.

According to NFIB’s monthly jobs report, thirty-eight percent of small business owners had job openings they could not fill in February—an increase of three points from January and the highest figure since August 2024. Of those hiring or attempting to hire in January, eighty-nine percent reported few or no qualified applicants for available positions.

A seasonally adjusted net fifteen percent plan to create new jobs within three months—a decrease of three points from January—while nineteen percent plan capital outlays within six months.

Overall sales expectations declined for two consecutive months after an initial surge post-election. A net negative twelve percent reported higher nominal sales over three months—a two-point drop from January—and inventory gains remained unchanged at a net negative six percent (seasonally adjusted).

The NFIB Research Center has been collecting Small Business Economic Trends data through quarterly surveys since late 1973 and monthly surveys since 1986. Survey participants are randomly selected from NFIB's membership base. The report is published on the second Tuesday each month; this particular survey was conducted in February 2025.